OK, let's use my alien brain here to logically analyze this situation. What we know so far is that there is lot's of retoric, but something new has happened, and that is the contradictory reports by both sides. So let''s examine these reports a bit in depth and see exactly what they mean.

1) Iran said they launched a bunch of missiles, the US said they only launched one...

Why does it matter how many they launched and why would the Iranians have faked that photo? Are we really to believe that Iran can't launch some missiles that we know it does indeed have? Logically, we must conclude that Iran does have the missiles, and could indeed have fired them, so why the fake photo, and why does the US say they only launched 1 missile? Well, the answer here is really fucking easy as pie to see, fortunately for all of us with any experience dealing with the Americans, we know one thing is certain, when it comes to numbers and the truth, the US ALLWAYS LIES...100% of the time. There is a philosophy which supports this that I am not presently going to get into, but just so you know, it does indeed exist. The mistake on the part of the Americans here is that they have followed this philosophy at a moment in time when they want secrecy and to hide the truth, so they have made a mistake. See, I know now that Iran probably did launch all the missiles it claims to have launched...the photo was probably done by the Americans themselves to lend credit to their plan of lying about this matter. Crafty, but terribly flawed. They should have said the Iranians launched more than one missile...it would have sounded more believeable. The fake photo might have gone over better...see, about that photo, everyone on the radio is complaining about how stupid the newspapers were for missing a fake photo...they said, "How could all those editors be so dumb?" Indeed, logic say's, they can't, not all at the same time...so something else was at play, like, they were probably told to run the fake photo, so that it could be said the Iranians faked a photo.

But why?

Why does the US tell us that Iran has no missile capacity? Becuase they don't want political pressure to mount any more than they can prevent. See, what they are saying is that, not only is Iran not a threat to the US forces, but the Iranians are so non-threatening in fact, and know it so badly that they had to make a fake photo because they haven't even got a few missiles that actually work. And the US leadership must then really be planning to attack Iran very soon and has told certain people who might be able to do something about it...the Iranians know this and so they are communicating in a more direct way to those people who will look at the matter and blow it off, in the short term. That is the kind of thing we might want to worry about...the short term...

2) The news story about Israeli planes...

Well, this one is confusing, it sounds like either the Iranians and anti-war elements have leaked this out, or, they made it up. It's possible they made it up, I mean we have no way of knowing. That's the problem, there is no fake photo...although the timing is of great concern, and here I find I am worried much much more...during a period of heightened tensions we see rumors of things to come...why now? Well, if there are planes there for real, the why now question is that war is coming right now. If however there are no planes there, then what advantage would anyone gain by making this claim? Well, they could get the anti-war group to act faster...but then we would have to ask why they would need them to do that? Maybe they just want people to get thinking about this more deeply? No, I don't think so.

So what does it all add up to?

The US is playing down Irans military capacity, and doing so now...in a signifigant way. There is a possibility that the Israelis have put planes in Iraq...

It means the US doesn't want anyone to worry about Iran having any military capaicity, and why should anyone, I mean if there is no war coming? That one issue alone is enough to answer the question...

War is coming...but the administration itself is concerned it could be stopped by power brokers within the government itself, so therefore, we are indeed aproaching some kind of an action, yet there is time still...a little bit of time before this comes...

Oil rose above 145 today. Stocks declined to about 11,000. They are now down 22.5% off their high set back in october of 14,198.

I think the real trouble hasn't even started yet.

Bad news people...a report has found it's way out to us all that there are Israeli planes in Iraq right now. Lot's of them. They are flying in at night.

So why do you suppose Israel would put it's planes in Iraq? This is very serious...it's not posturing that we see here, but actual positioning being done in secret at night.

Should we believe this report?

Well, where does it come from?

It was first reported on a local Iraqi news network that quoted Iraqi government officials that seem to be unnamed...maybe they are anonymous.

I am inclined to believe this report though...however, it may not be true, nor might it mean much of anything except secret posturing against Iran...posturing you see, that's all...

Probably nothing will happen.

Or maybe...

Well, if you saw the papers today you probably saw the photo of the missiles being launched in a test which the Iranians said was a show of strength...if you listened to the radio this morning you might have heard they have tested more this morning...you also may have heard Condi Rice make open threats of war against the state of Iran...and I have just read that the Israelis are throwing more threats of taking their own actions this morning...

So it is getting more and more ugly...

Anyway, when the war comes, it's begining really will be secret...the first rumors will be heard from correspondants in Iran who will be heard on overnight radio programs here in the US, but it will not be reported in any of the morning papers and most of you will not hear anything definative until the early evening.

It will be several days of chaos over there with no one knowing much of anything except which areas have been attacked, and maybe are under current attack at that moment...who is winning will not be clear until at least after 7 days...even then it will be unclear who will win...it will only apear a certain way...two weeks of war will bring a better clarity, and three weeks will make it very clear.

My bet is the US loses the campaign against Iran and the Iranians move against the American army in Iraq in the weeks following the failed attacks. I give the American force in Iraq a six to eight week window before it is either totally destroyed or so badly defeated that whatever remains will be makeing a hasty retreat into Turkey.

I also am betting that the war between the US, Israel and Iran will not include Syria until after the US loses.

And, I am betting that the Iranians will suceed in a full and complete and immediate closure of the Straight of Hormuz.

I bet we will see something happen in Saudi Arabia as well...either the royal family will fall or the Iranians will blow up the major oil shipping point in Saudi Arabia and the royal family will fall at that point, or the Royal family will condem the attacks and initiate an irrelivant oil embargo of their own in support of Iran. But whatever happens, it I guarantee you, something WILL HAPPEN there.

103 current

75 extra for my ex-wife.

50 for collection calls for money I do not owe and that no one else would ever get.

50 for not aproving my application for credit cards.

25 for the nasty bitch at the YMCA who tried to stop my son from joining.

100 for forcing me to live on the streets during the month of July.

100 for not providing me with an adequate girlfriend for the month of July.

100 for blocking me from working for the month of July.

OK so that brings the total of penalty leaflets to be put out later this month up to 500.

Alright...